Baghdad: notable disagreement by day 6
Four forecasts from the 16 Sep 12Z run: ECMWF's learned model (AIFS), its physics model (HRES), Google DeepMind's WeatherNext 2, and the ECMWF ensemble mean, with the ensemble's 10–90% range shaded behind them.
Driven by temperature. 50 means the models disagree as much as the ensemble expects.
Disagreement by day
How it's measuredDay number after the run. Hover a chip for the date and the variable behind it.
2 m temperature, every model
Hover or tap the chart to read each model at that hour. The grey band is the range the ensemble puts 80% of its members in.
Day by day
Each model's high and low for the 24 hours ending at the time shown, °C. Δ is how much that model's high moved since its previous run, twelve hours earlier.
| Day | DI | AIFS | HRES | WN2 | ENS mean | ENS range | Spread of highs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1to Thu 17 12Z | 44temperature | 43° 26°Δ 0 | 43° 31°Δ +1 | 43° 28°Δ 0 | 43° 29°Δ 0 | 43–43° | 0° |
| Day 2to Fri 18 12Z | 43temperature | 42° 28°Δ 0 | 42° 32°Δ -1 | 42° 31°Δ 0 | 43° 31°Δ 0 | 42–45° | 1° |
| Day 3to Sat 19 12Z | 33temperature | 41° 29°Δ 0 | 41° 31°Δ -1 | 41° 30°Δ 0 | 41° 31°Δ 0 | 40–42° | 0° |
| Day 4to Sun 20 12Z | 46temperature | 38° 26°Δ 0 | 38° 30°Δ -1 | 37° 28°Δ 0 | 39° 30°Δ 0 | 37–40° | 2° |
| Day 5to Mon 21 12Z | 37temperature | 40° 26°Δ 0 | 39° 30°Δ +1 | 40° 27°Δ +1 | 40° 29°Δ +1 | 39–41° | 1° |
| Day 6to Tue 22 12Z | 46temperature | 44° 27°Δ 0 | 42° 30°Δ 0 | 43° 29°Δ 0 | 42° 29°Δ 0 | 41–43° | 2° |
| Day 7to Wed 23 12Z | 31temperature | 44° 28°Δ +1 | 46° 32°Δ +2 | 42° 29°Δ 0 | 44° 31°Δ 0 | 43–46° | 4° |
| Day 8to Thu 24 12Z | 43temperature | 43° 28°Δ 0 | 44° 33°Δ 0 | 42° 30°Δ 0 | 43° 31°Δ 0 | 41–45° | 2° |
| Day 9to Fri 25 12Z | 31pressure | 43° 29°Δ 0 | 43° 32°Δ +1 | 42° 30°Δ 0 | 42° 31°Δ 0 | 40–44° | 1° |
| Day 10to Sat 26 12Z | 22pressure | 42° 29°Δ -2 | 42° 32°Δ +1 | 42° 30°Δ +1 | 42° 31°Δ +1 | 38–45° | 0° |
Open this place on the map
Values are what Forecast Euro's ingest sampled from each model's grid at this city, rounded to whole degrees at source. This page compares models; it is not a forecast to plan by.