Ouagadougou: notable disagreement by day 6
Four forecasts from the 16 Sep 12Z run: ECMWF's learned model (AIFS), its physics model (HRES), Google DeepMind's WeatherNext 2, and the ECMWF ensemble mean, with the ensemble's 10–90% range shaded behind them.
Driven by pressure. 50 means the models disagree as much as the ensemble expects.
Disagreement by day
How it's measuredDay number after the run. Hover a chip for the date and the variable behind it.
2 m temperature, every model
Hover or tap the chart to read each model at that hour. The grey band is the range the ensemble puts 80% of its members in.
Day by day
Each model's high and low for the 24 hours ending at the time shown, °C. Δ is how much that model's high moved since its previous run, twelve hours earlier.
| Day | DI | AIFS | HRES | WN2 | ENS mean | ENS range | Spread of highs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1to Thu 17 12Z | 37temperature | 31° 25°Δ 0 | 34° 25°Δ +1 | 30° 25°Δ +1 | 33° 24°Δ 0 | 31–34° | 4° |
| Day 2to Fri 18 12Z | 36pressure | 31° 24°Δ -1 | 31° 26°Δ -1 | 30° 23°Δ -1 | 32° 25°Δ 0 | 29–34° | 2° |
| Day 3to Sat 19 12Z | 29temperature | 32° 25°Δ +1 | 31° 24°Δ +1 | 31° 24°Δ +1 | 29° 24°Δ -1 | 27–31° | 3° |
| Day 4to Sun 20 12Z | 35temperature | 28° 24°Δ -3 | 30° 24°Δ -1 | 29° 23°Δ -1 | 31° 23°Δ 0 | 29–32° | 3° |
| Day 5to Mon 21 12Z | 23pressure | 31° 24°Δ 0 | 29° 24°Δ -1 | 30° 23°Δ 0 | 30° 24°Δ 0 | 28–32° | 2° |
| Day 6to Tue 22 12Z | 45temperature | 32° 25°Δ 0 | 31° 24°Δ 0 | 30° 23°Δ 0 | 31° 24°Δ +1 | 29–32° | 2° |
| Day 7to Wed 23 12Z | 43temperature | 32° 25°Δ 0 | 32° 24°Δ +1 | 29° 23°Δ -1 | 31° 24°Δ +1 | 29–33° | 3° |
| Day 8to Thu 24 12Z | 43temperature | 31° 25°Δ 0 | 29° 23°Δ 0 | 29° 23°Δ -1 | 30° 24°Δ 0 | 28–32° | 2° |
| Day 9to Fri 25 12Z | 39pressure | 32° 25°Δ 0 | 30° 23°Δ 0 | 30° 23°Δ -1 | 30° 23°Δ 0 | 27–32° | 2° |
| Day 10to Sat 26 12Z | 41temperature | 32° 25°Δ -1 | 30° 23°Δ +1 | 31° 23°Δ -1 | 31° 23°Δ +1 | 29–33° | 2° |
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Values are what Forecast Euro's ingest sampled from each model's grid at this city, rounded to whole degrees at source. This page compares models; it is not a forecast to plan by.